Why the Conservatives will dump the Constitution

After the self-imposed “year of reflection” the European governments are once again buzzing with ideas how it should go on with the Constitution. Despite some differences in the tactics, the conservative strategy for Europe is now becoming clear: most probably no Constitution for now. But most of its content will come anyway.

The five conservative heavyweights – Barroso, Schuessel, Chirac, Merkel and Kaczynski – have proposed different ideas of how to – or not to – pursue with the Constitution. Whereas Schuessel and initially Merkel want to give the Constitution a second try, Barroso and Merkel recently favored continued reform on a low level without reviving the Constitution for now. Chirac prefers “cherry-picking” those propositions that do not need a referendum. The Polish President Lech Kaczynski wants to rewrite the Constitution with a less integrationist approach.

Behind those disaccords, the Conservative leaders share a common idea of how the next couple of years in the Union should look like:

1) Enlargement’s over
Integration (symbolized by the Constitution) and Enlargement are seen as the two biggest turn-offs for the European population. Key of the new strategy is to upset the Europeans as little as possible. So, Merkel, the French government and the European Parliament (EP) have made it clear that they want an enlargement stop for now. It's likely that after Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia they plan to make a (very) long break. Merkel, like Sarkozy and Schuessel, have expressed their doubts about a full membership for Turkey.

2) Cherry-picking
The Commission’s recent proposal to use a bridging-clause to transfer of large numbers of police and criminal matters from the third pillar (unanimous vote) to the first pillar (majority vote) resembles the relevant clause from the Constitution. It seems that the cherry-picking, proposed by Chirac, has begun. This means the implementation of parts of the Constitution through the back door.

3) Focus on further liberalization and security-related issues
A partial stop of integration is nothing the Conservatives are particularly afraid of. Contrary, for the conservative leaders (like Kaczynski) a deepening of the Union (especially in social matters or taxation) is a frightening perspective. Without a Constitution further integration in those areas will be posponed for years. Further liberalization, on the other hand, is easily possible in the current treaty structure. Security-related and criminal matters can, as proposed, be transferred into the first pillar that doesn’t require unanimous vote.

This turn from last year’s grand-project-approach of the Constitution to a comfortingly slow, but consistent pursuit of neoliberal policies finds its expression in the Commission’s paper “A Citizen’s Agenda”, published today. “The clear message we receive,” the paper says, “is that citizens want a Europe of results. A Europe that delivers for them.”

The British are likely to play along, especially as the Labour government is weakened and will not invest political capital in pushing an unpopular Constitution. And Britain has never been overenthusiastic about the Constitution anyway. This means Europe's big four: France, Germany, Poland and the UK will most likely not further push the Constitution. This could mean posponing and probably changing the Constitution - or a long kiss goodbye into oblivion.

The only real woe of the Conservatives is that without the Constitution further integration of a common foreign and military policy will have to wait. But, it seems, that’s something the Conservatives can live with for now.